* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL122012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 64 67 70 66 48 32 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 64 67 70 66 44 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 60 63 65 58 41 31 24 21 19 V (KT) G00R 44 48 51 51 50 54 61 67 61 54 37 43 46 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 10 9 14 20 50 77 81 72 55 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 2 -1 -5 -11 11 20 0 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 257 330 42 30 18 76 44 30 33 37 59 65 64 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 25.8 17.3 13.0 11.2 11.3 12.1 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 135 133 128 117 79 72 73 72 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 118 114 113 111 106 75 70 71 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -50.5 -49.2 -48.1 -46.8 -45.5 -44.3 -43.4 -42.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 14 14 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 46 46 49 39 39 36 42 52 54 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 33 35 37 38 37 40 46 39 36 31 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 16 26 32 107 154 151 105 172 226 239 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -11 14 47 43 45 79 125 14 86 66 23 N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1368 1325 1253 1193 962 665 167 140 794 1540 998 536 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.1 35.5 39.3 45.5 50.3 55.0 59.3 60.8 61.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.1 61.2 59.5 56.7 52.2 44.1 33.2 22.3 11.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 15 27 33 29 37 32 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):356/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -4. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -20. -25. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 3. 1. -3. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 11. -7. -23. -40. -54. -72.