* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL122012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 64 69 75 73 55 42 33 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 64 69 75 73 48 35 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 60 63 66 57 40 30 25 23 23 V (KT) G04R 42 46 50 51 54 53 76 75 68 57 62 54 54 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 9 11 13 10 18 64 75 69 54 37 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 3 0 -7 -7 17 13 9 -1 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 199 299 29 15 10 60 356 21 29 44 65 65 71 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 25.6 16.2 12.0 9.4 11.4 12.2 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 135 133 129 117 78 74 70 72 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 118 114 113 112 108 75 72 68 70 69 71 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -49.3 -47.4 -46.2 -45.8 -45.2 -43.6 -42.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 44 45 46 35 36 38 51 58 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 33 36 37 38 45 56 49 47 50 42 32 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -6 13 29 43 104 144 119 129 226 221 279 N/A 200 MB DIV 3 9 22 35 36 61 89 117 50 108 62 40 N/A LAND (KM) 1283 1368 1325 1253 1178 936 594 86 340 1011 1441 873 190 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.2 35.6 39.8 46.7 53.1 58.2 60.4 60.5 60.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.6 62.2 61.7 60.1 57.0 50.7 42.3 30.7 20.2 6.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 16 31 36 39 29 31 30 35 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):356/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 11. 9. 11. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 18. 0. -13. -22. -39. -61.