* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL142012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 37 46 56 65 72 78 83 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 37 46 56 65 72 78 83 86 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 16 16 17 18 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 253 250 229 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 134 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 139 140 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 100 98 105 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 4 -6 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 738 875 1042 1238 1533 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.8 15.9 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.6 27.2 29.0 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 19 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 12. 21. 31. 40. 47. 53. 58. 61. 64.