* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL132012 09/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 77 75 68 58 47 41 31 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 81 78 77 75 68 58 47 41 31 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 77 75 73 70 69 67 62 52 42 DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 54 43 48 51 52 48 39 33 31 35 33 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 2 12 22 40 32 15 33 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -3 6 6 0 2 0 6 2 18 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 17 38 11 242 209 207 200 232 16 43 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.2 22.6 19.1 15.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 120 121 121 126 123 119 95 82 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 98 100 100 107 107 106 87 77 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -51.7 -50.8 -49.7 -49.2 -48.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 5 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 36 32 30 28 29 32 34 32 33 34 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 21 22 22 21 18 11 6 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -39 -51 -43 -46 -40 -28 51 88 -41 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -55 -4 3 -26 -55 -27 13 22 -2 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1735 1716 1713 1712 1722 1626 1414 1053 690 788 1422 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.5 33.4 33.2 32.9 33.3 34.6 37.8 42.4 46.9 51.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.6 42.8 43.3 43.8 45.3 47.8 48.7 46.7 42.3 33.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 4 10 14 21 27 29 43 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):346/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -25. -31. -37. -41. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -17. -27. -38. -44. -54. -70. -72. -74.