* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 32 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 28 29 25 26 24 21 20 17 16 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 18 17 13 12 19 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 203 214 237 256 316 0 32 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.2 22.7 22.3 22.1 22.4 23.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 93 88 83 80 83 93 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 46 44 42 39 35 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 12 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -28 -46 -48 -66 -76 -64 -48 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -27 -30 -31 -13 3 -18 -9 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 398 449 468 476 453 411 357 283 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.3 26.3 26.7 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.9 117.7 118.3 118.6 118.8 118.4 117.4 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 6 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -11. -21. -35. -47. -52. -58. -61. -65.