* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL922012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 37 41 45 47 52 56 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 37 41 45 47 52 56 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 33 37 42 V (KT) G02R 20 16 17 16 14 14 16 16 16 18 18 15 16 SHEAR (KT) 26 24 23 24 22 19 16 23 22 36 21 30 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 1 -2 -2 0 -4 -5 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 243 251 241 244 250 228 200 171 149 143 140 165 178 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 147 147 149 152 156 158 160 159 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 146 138 136 140 144 150 150 153 148 151 157 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 15 16 15 16 16 16 16 17 16 16 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 59 56 53 53 50 47 48 44 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -12 -13 -18 -31 -21 -33 -32 -33 -15 -22 -21 200 MB DIV 50 36 38 42 22 2 8 -21 9 -15 -22 -24 -36 LAND (KM) 729 741 761 771 773 724 659 583 603 465 278 106 172 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 13.6 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.9 18.2 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.0 54.6 54.7 54.8 55.7 56.7 58.6 59.7 61.6 63.1 64.7 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 4 3 5 7 8 8 9 7 9 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 27. 31. 36.