* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 33 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 33 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 31 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 35 28 24 23 21 18 17 16 14 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 13 9 13 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -6 0 3 3 0 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 183 204 226 279 356 28 85 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.5 22.7 22.1 21.7 21.3 21.8 22.9 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 98 89 82 76 72 77 88 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 4 4 2 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 47 45 42 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -17 -33 -37 -57 -74 -48 -38 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -41 -34 -30 -18 6 5 -6 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 426 457 461 470 480 458 390 303 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.8 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.3 118.2 118.9 119.3 119.5 118.9 117.9 116.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 7 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -6. -16. -27. -42. -52. -58. -64. -69. -73.