* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP122012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 44 51 56 55 53 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 44 51 56 55 53 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 40 41 43 42 38 33 28 23 V (KT) G05R 25 28 32 30 30 33 38 38 38 34 30 26 24 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 12 14 9 7 5 15 15 19 25 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -4 -7 -2 2 4 7 9 10 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 280 181 168 178 168 111 77 14 24 25 24 69 102 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 144 143 142 138 129 118 113 112 115 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 66 69 76 76 75 72 66 58 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 17 16 17 18 18 19 17 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 18 21 14 4 -5 -3 -5 -8 -6 4 17 18 200 MB DIV 75 65 40 26 49 44 45 43 44 14 14 -2 16 LAND (KM) 1757 1833 1901 1933 1959 1995 2007 2035 2068 2126 2225 2036 1819 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 15.1 16.1 17.0 17.4 17.4 16.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.6 125.7 126.4 126.9 127.6 128.8 130.2 131.4 132.4 133.8 135.7 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 6 4 5 9 7 6 6 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 21. 20. 18. 11. 3. -7. -16.