* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 32 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 29 32 28 26 25 20 20 18 15 11 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 12 7 9 26 25 25 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 1 1 3 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 205 215 234 263 353 13 60 85 104 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.0 22.2 21.8 20.8 20.3 20.8 21.5 12.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 92 83 79 68 61 66 75 59 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 46 42 41 38 39 39 41 39 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 13 12 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -32 -47 -60 -78 -67 -72 -44 -24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -60 -49 -32 -19 -13 27 30 29 10 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 407 422 441 454 447 471 427 340 222 100 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.1 27.5 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.9 117.9 118.7 119.1 119.8 119.9 119.1 118.0 116.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 7 3 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. -26. -27. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -14. -16. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -13. -27. -47. -64. -78. -88. -94. -99.