* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 54 58 62 67 71 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 54 58 62 67 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 297 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 34. 38. 42. 47. 51. 55.