* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP122012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 46 51 50 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 46 51 50 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 41 41 38 32 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 27 33 35 32 28 27 27 28 27 22 20 19 19 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 6 6 10 17 19 23 28 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -5 -4 -1 1 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 235 183 166 160 126 85 36 46 28 44 72 91 87 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 25.8 24.1 22.5 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 140 135 121 104 87 73 72 72 77 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 63 64 65 63 58 54 46 40 32 28 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 17 18 19 18 17 15 12 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 80 63 46 43 46 35 10 -11 -20 -31 -46 -52 -49 200 MB DIV 64 72 60 42 46 31 48 22 1 3 -18 -17 -14 LAND (KM) 1750 1717 1668 1630 1614 1568 1467 1423 1457 1484 1577 1741 1919 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.8 19.7 21.4 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.1 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 123.8 124.0 124.3 124.8 125.8 126.4 127.2 128.2 128.6 129.6 131.1 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 9 10 9 3 4 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. 1. -3. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 15. 7. -6. -21. -37. -49. -59.