* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 25 23 20 19 19 17 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 14 18 18 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 4 2 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 299 326 3 23 66 93 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.7 22.6 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 75 75 75 75 85 92 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 41 39 37 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -63 -72 -69 -75 -57 -23 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -8 0 12 9 11 -7 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 491 500 465 439 410 315 219 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.4 119.3 119.2 119.0 118.1 117.2 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -25. -35. -44. -54. -60. -67. -71. -75.