* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 23 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 24 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 13 9 14 16 12 17 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 37 37 27 31 33 46 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 -2 0 -5 -10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 55 50 26 23 15 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 23.9 15.0 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 97 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 87 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 12 13 7 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 54 56 54 58 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 17 64 70 95 78 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 41 23 62 79 85 59 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 58 -16 29 -48 -122 -371 -251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.9 29.5 30.1 31.5 34.3 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.3 95.7 93.6 92.5 88.8 83.8 79.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 15 15 12 21 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 0 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 7. 10. 12. 12. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 4. -10. -21. -30. -35. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 18. 8. 1. -5. -9. -13. -17.