* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 30 23 20 20 19 19 15 12 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 12 17 18 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 6 2 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 295 340 4 20 58 86 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 74 72 71 70 77 82 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 4 3 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 38 37 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -35 -51 -53 -62 -56 -28 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -2 -3 3 13 27 15 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 493 464 452 434 353 229 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.5 119.5 119.5 119.4 118.6 117.6 116.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -27. -39. -50. -59. -66. -73. -78. -82.