* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 27 27 26 23 21 18 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 10 14 17 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 4 0 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 301 328 2 18 65 78 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 73 70 68 65 66 70 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 42 42 42 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 16 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -35 -48 -58 -62 -53 -34 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 36 24 16 3 19 2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 544 522 513 483 401 296 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 26.3 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.9 120.0 120.1 120.0 119.4 118.6 118.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -18. -21. -25. -26. -27. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -12. -26. -40. -54. -66. -73. -81. -86. -91.