* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP112012 09/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 25 29 27 24 25 21 17 14 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 17 20 19 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 5 4 -3 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 338 354 6 8 35 59 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 74 72 72 75 82 87 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 41 40 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 14 13 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -85 -85 -88 -85 -84 -65 -38 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -18 -20 7 7 8 -14 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 476 512 503 489 466 394 337 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.4 119.5 119.4 119.2 118.5 117.9 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -24. -35. -45. -52. -59. -66. -71. -76.