* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL142012 09/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 45 45 45 40 36 30 30 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 45 45 45 40 36 30 30 26 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 44 43 41 40 39 38 36 36 DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 45 45 44 45 50 52 46 49 53 45 49 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 27 25 24 26 20 26 27 21 13 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -6 -6 -4 -4 -8 -2 0 3 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 54 65 54 34 31 51 26 34 10 163 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.4 22.4 21.6 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 108 104 101 97 95 95 89 85 85 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 93 92 89 85 80 80 83 79 75 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 38 40 41 41 35 33 40 44 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 35 36 35 34 36 39 35 35 34 36 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 117 112 107 111 106 113 143 198 213 228 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 17 11 22 34 65 2 -6 -41 1 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2080 2041 1995 2009 2050 1982 1973 1779 1503 1292 1415 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.1 34.6 35.6 36.3 37.3 37.8 37.5 38.3 40.0 40.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.2 33.5 32.7 32.2 32.3 32.7 31.7 29.5 26.5 24.2 25.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 7 4 6 13 12 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 47/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -1. -1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -10. -14. -20. -20. -24. -27. -29.