* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP132012 09/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 22 25 28 31 34 35 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 22 25 28 31 34 35 36 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 15 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 253 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 154 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -49 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 518 722 757 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 9.5 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.6 98.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 39. 43. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 19. 21.