* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL142012 09/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 41 43 45 45 45 46 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 41 43 45 45 45 46 45 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 41 44 50 56 56 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 39 42 45 50 51 45 48 43 49 46 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 28 27 26 24 18 2 5 8 28 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 2 -1 0 0 -1 2 3 8 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 36 37 52 62 92 110 68 34 9 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.8 23.9 24.5 25.0 24.2 19.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 85 86 87 91 97 102 107 107 85 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 75 76 77 81 86 89 96 105 81 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -52.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 37 36 34 32 31 29 29 34 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 31 31 31 33 33 31 29 28 33 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 67 103 122 144 187 197 192 183 201 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -41 -19 -15 -21 -3 -5 24 11 72 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1974 1909 1844 1730 1609 1370 1142 901 756 568 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 36.8 36.3 35.8 35.0 32.9 31.6 31.3 34.7 43.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.6 30.7 29.8 28.7 27.7 26.2 24.2 21.5 17.2 16.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 11 16 38 42 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -1.