* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP132012 09/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 62 68 73 73 71 65 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 62 68 73 73 71 65 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 45 51 56 62 64 62 57 51 V (KT) G01R 20 17 21 19 19 20 21 28 28 31 31 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 11 9 7 6 3 8 15 21 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -6 -5 -3 -5 -5 0 0 0 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 315 320 312 311 295 321 287 77 41 65 55 85 101 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 27.7 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 155 157 151 150 141 129 121 114 111 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 64 66 69 72 68 68 64 59 57 51 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 17 18 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 42 49 49 28 17 3 10 3 3 1 16 200 MB DIV 132 81 52 63 75 47 66 20 47 54 24 3 23 LAND (KM) 663 703 739 778 838 904 873 794 774 746 697 693 668 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 14.9 15.6 17.0 18.3 19.2 20.1 20.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.8 108.3 109.0 109.8 112.1 113.1 114.3 115.6 116.3 116.8 117.3 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 7 12 7 8 10 7 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):268/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 28. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 32. 38. 43. 43. 41. 35. 26.