* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL942012 09/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 56 61 65 68 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 56 61 65 68 71 74 76 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 41 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 25 22 19 17 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 21 21 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 167 179 187 195 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 113 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 95 92 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 69 59 52 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -23 -3 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1168 1098 1031 935 949 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.2 34.7 35.5 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.2 61.7 62.1 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41.