* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP132012 09/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 53 58 69 78 83 81 81 77 66 55 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 53 58 69 78 83 81 81 77 66 55 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 47 49 54 58 59 58 54 51 47 41 V (KT) G03R 30 31 35 36 38 41 50 49 54 48 47 42 42 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 1 2 4 2 4 3 12 8 11 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 3 6 1 -3 -2 6 3 SHEAR DIR 250 324 351 15 348 93 1 324 11 351 62 82 58 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 152 148 142 134 129 123 119 111 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 12 12 12 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 63 62 65 65 63 61 56 54 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 22 23 24 27 30 33 33 34 33 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 2 9 4 11 20 27 41 49 46 38 34 200 MB DIV 72 93 89 98 87 41 66 50 33 72 7 23 23 LAND (KM) 598 592 613 670 724 703 676 693 684 679 552 473 355 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.3 19.0 19.4 20.8 22.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.2 109.0 110.3 111.3 112.7 113.7 114.5 115.1 115.4 115.5 115.8 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 12 12 9 7 5 3 4 4 8 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 19. 19. 21. 21. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 29. 38. 43. 41. 41. 37. 26. 15.