* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP132012 09/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 51 54 61 64 63 56 48 43 37 25 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 51 54 61 64 63 56 48 43 37 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 47 50 54 55 51 46 40 35 31 25 V (KT) G10R 33 30 33 36 32 35 34 39 34 30 31 41 37 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 3 6 3 9 14 18 15 16 14 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 236 312 93 97 34 71 36 53 39 49 46 71 56 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.4 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 25.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 148 141 128 116 111 109 107 112 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 10 10 10 9 12 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 66 64 65 63 60 57 49 47 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 21 21 22 23 25 24 23 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 66 54 41 45 42 35 32 32 55 43 39 22 24 200 MB DIV 67 60 62 73 80 62 70 14 41 46 46 35 74 LAND (KM) 610 606 626 674 628 589 611 606 560 429 265 113 13 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.8 20.1 20.7 21.0 22.0 23.5 25.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.7 111.0 112.1 113.6 115.4 116.2 115.9 115.2 114.5 113.4 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 13 14 12 10 7 3 4 8 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 21. 24. 23. 16. 8. 3. -3. -15.