* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP152012 10/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 61 65 71 71 66 60 53 46 38 32 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 61 65 71 71 66 60 53 46 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 61 65 70 72 72 70 67 62 56 51 V (KT) G00R 25 32 32 33 33 34 34 31 29 26 24 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 1 5 10 12 14 13 11 13 19 23 29 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 0 0 1 3 6 6 5 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 289 11 35 39 30 46 30 55 55 64 62 70 80 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 142 138 134 131 131 128 129 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 52 51 49 48 47 47 46 43 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 2 -4 -9 -5 4 6 -7 -17 -17 -11 -7 200 MB DIV 60 82 76 58 63 37 27 24 4 23 4 -17 4 LAND (KM) 1482 1482 1462 1456 1430 1389 1366 1391 1465 1571 1683 1823 2020 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 120.9 121.4 121.8 122.0 122.1 122.2 122.6 123.6 124.7 125.9 127.4 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 5 4 3 1 3 5 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 26. 26. 22. 15. 8. 1. -7. -13.