* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL162012 10/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 55 61 67 69 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 46 55 61 67 69 72 76 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 50 56 61 66 DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 16 18 17 16 21 18 15 13 13 10 16 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 7 14 14 16 17 17 19 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -3 -4 -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 105 93 73 75 110 84 107 67 86 63 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 159 159 156 154 152 152 151 153 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 146 148 148 141 134 132 130 128 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 15 15 16 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 54 57 59 61 60 58 54 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 12 1 -7 -8 -16 -37 -41 -54 -38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 1 5 10 8 22 22 3 -6 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 284 287 266 278 200 232 218 273 203 180 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.4 22.6 23.2 23.6 23.9 23.5 23.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.7 69.8 71.2 72.3 74.7 75.7 76.7 76.2 76.7 76.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 8 4 4 3 2 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 24. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 36. 42. 44. 47. 51. 55.