* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL162012 10/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 45 47 49 51 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 45 47 49 51 55 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 13 17 15 18 22 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 17 19 22 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 63 63 46 46 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 154 156 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 129 126 132 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 46 44 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -48 -37 -26 -20 -11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 18 23 39 36 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 674 653 706 745 723 615 562 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.1 26.6 26.9 26.5 25.6 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 72.3 72.2 72.1 71.7 72.2 72.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 4 2 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. 35. 38. 40.