* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL162012 10/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 45 46 49 52 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 40 45 46 49 52 55 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 18 18 19 19 23 25 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 20 23 21 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 62 56 45 46 35 31 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 150 152 155 160 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 128 125 127 133 141 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 51 47 44 42 37 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -49 -40 -23 -7 2 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 22 32 49 43 30 21 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 687 731 765 770 688 552 436 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 72.5 72.3 72.1 71.7 71.8 72.5 73.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 40.