* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL162012 10/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 40 44 45 47 47 48 51 52 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 40 44 45 47 47 48 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 22 22 24 25 27 26 24 23 24 26 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 19 23 23 28 26 30 32 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 4 8 4 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 57 61 54 49 63 52 58 38 62 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 149 151 150 151 151 151 159 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 124 127 123 127 129 128 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 45 41 39 40 39 39 41 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -38 -22 -17 -11 -4 22 25 40 15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 33 33 39 41 31 46 22 22 31 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 612 633 672 712 698 678 670 674 765 595 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.2 73.1 72.8 72.7 72.7 72.8 73.2 72.1 72.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 2 3 0 3 5 5 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -2. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 24. 25. 27. 27. 28. 31. 32.