* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP162012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 31 39 48 55 59 60 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 31 39 48 55 59 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 18 20 23 26 27 28 V (KT) G01R 11 12 15 16 21 20 19 18 25 23 28 28 30 SHEAR (KT) 22 18 16 17 16 11 10 2 6 6 18 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 3 2 2 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 260 262 252 253 253 254 213 173 40 39 21 44 35 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 153 154 150 152 155 155 146 135 129 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 73 75 75 73 76 74 71 66 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 14 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -1 7 14 21 11 7 16 31 22 32 24 27 200 MB DIV 33 44 27 25 19 31 75 61 73 79 76 40 44 LAND (KM) 752 768 770 829 872 853 788 669 621 566 490 428 319 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 12.0 13.0 15.5 17.4 18.2 19.1 19.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.5 105.3 106.4 107.4 107.9 108.3 109.8 111.1 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 5 10 4 6 10 14 9 6 3 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 32. 36. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 17. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 19. 28. 35. 39. 40. 38.