* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL172012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 50 62 72 81 84 84 85 83 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 50 62 72 81 84 84 85 83 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 45 52 58 61 60 56 V (KT) G03R 29 27 30 31 29 30 32 36 41 42 44 51 50 SHEAR (KT) 18 26 27 20 19 17 18 20 20 23 24 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 5 8 10 0 -2 -4 -2 4 13 0 1 SHEAR DIR 50 59 57 43 39 66 54 80 63 88 73 78 61 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.7 25.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 156 155 156 154 151 147 141 133 124 115 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 158 156 148 147 149 140 135 127 120 115 110 98 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 10 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 71 69 69 66 66 62 60 57 58 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 15 18 19 21 21 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 31 35 41 11 53 55 70 51 80 70 15 200 MB DIV 41 32 64 95 92 69 101 76 82 85 77 77 89 LAND (KM) 220 358 466 481 415 284 381 528 711 893 1260 1009 585 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.9 15.0 15.8 16.0 18.3 20.5 22.4 24.5 26.4 29.7 34.7 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.1 61.1 62.0 62.6 63.0 62.8 63.1 63.6 64.3 64.0 62.6 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 9 7 13 9 11 10 13 20 32 34 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 32. 42. 51. 54. 54. 55. 53.