* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL172012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 41 50 63 76 84 86 86 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 41 50 63 76 84 86 86 87 89 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 47 53 57 58 57 52 V (KT) G09R 30 33 30 30 23 28 34 41 42 51 47 55 54 SHEAR (KT) 19 26 23 16 17 13 18 21 20 25 28 23 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 5 8 9 0 -2 -1 2 6 12 8 6 SHEAR DIR 54 50 48 30 19 42 46 67 49 78 71 65 45 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 26.9 25.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 156 155 158 151 149 142 137 127 117 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 154 149 146 162 138 139 128 124 118 115 90 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 12 12 9 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 69 68 69 69 64 59 57 51 56 67 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 20 24 27 27 26 27 34 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 45 51 55 23 59 63 76 55 63 79 135 200 MB DIV 63 48 55 80 72 72 122 106 57 41 113 121 205 LAND (KM) 368 411 449 485 415 326 415 486 630 841 1151 1023 441 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 17.6 20.5 22.2 24.0 26.1 29.1 34.5 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.1 61.6 62.3 63.0 62.7 62.5 63.5 64.5 65.5 65.1 63.0 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 11 8 6 19 8 12 9 13 20 37 38 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 9. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 20. 33. 46. 54. 56. 56. 57. 59.