* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP162012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 70 70 67 50 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 70 70 67 50 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 69 69 65 57 46 31 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 43 35 37 36 38 45 56 45 31 33 30 21 16 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 7 13 24 32 25 32 32 29 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 4 12 6 4 13 4 5 12 8 SHEAR DIR 291 340 239 302 351 24 12 48 33 38 58 85 97 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.2 26.4 27.0 25.2 20.4 22.4 19.5 19.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 139 134 127 130 134 115 66 87 62 62 61 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 7 8 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 70 66 64 61 52 43 37 30 26 26 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 25 25 26 27 30 34 30 22 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 132 121 103 112 121 102 89 74 40 71 74 70 89 200 MB DIV 131 122 110 88 67 80 86 78 65 26 23 -33 -23 LAND (KM) 1026 977 906 824 699 396 127 100 51 268 452 708 966 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.4 21.3 24.0 25.8 27.3 28.4 29.6 29.1 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.5 115.5 115.3 114.7 113.5 113.2 113.6 115.1 118.0 120.8 124.1 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 13 16 10 10 12 13 14 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):331/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -8. -12. -19. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. -10. -39. -57. -75. -91.-103.