* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL172012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 77 80 83 82 72 65 59 46 35 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 77 80 83 82 72 65 59 46 35 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 74 76 77 73 65 52 43 39 40 42 V (KT) G07R 48 50 52 57 62 69 68 69 68 57 56 40 32 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 23 22 23 31 31 32 28 19 9 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 4 2 -1 3 10 7 7 13 0 2 SHEAR DIR 76 66 70 67 58 48 31 21 59 72 73 76 72 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.2 26.1 24.8 12.9 11.4 8.5 8.9 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 149 145 131 121 112 75 70 67 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 137 134 125 116 108 73 68 65 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.9 -51.6 -51.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 65 65 65 54 43 50 58 54 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 30 31 34 34 37 38 34 32 36 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 73 77 85 87 92 78 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 31 53 73 114 118 122 168 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 333 397 479 600 745 1154 1148 707 399 990 820 515 408 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.9 25.2 28.8 33.6 39.9 47.0 52.7 56.0 55.9 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.2 65.6 65.8 65.7 64.3 61.7 56.3 47.6 40.3 44.1 49.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 12 14 24 30 44 47 24 19 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):336/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. 2. 5. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 17. 20. 23. 22. 12. 5. -1. -14. -25.