* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL172012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 72 75 78 80 80 77 67 54 49 40 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 72 75 78 80 80 77 67 54 49 40 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 70 72 74 75 72 68 64 56 47 41 37 V (KT) G08R 50 51 57 51 49 51 48 48 51 52 40 43 46 SHEAR (KT) 28 26 20 17 20 26 28 16 26 28 45 49 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 6 10 4 0 1 0 3 8 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 64 68 73 71 69 66 52 61 33 36 90 109 114 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.3 25.0 18.9 17.5 15.6 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 148 139 128 122 113 85 80 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 135 133 133 130 116 115 108 81 76 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -55.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 5 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 65 64 64 57 43 32 31 45 35 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 31 31 30 30 31 30 27 24 19 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 21 61 88 75 68 79 69 64 59 42 88 96 151 200 MB DIV 91 58 92 77 62 88 107 122 75 47 57 5 -7 LAND (KM) 338 354 401 489 569 860 1224 1324 931 589 1162 1404 1184 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.9 23.6 26.1 29.1 32.4 37.9 43.1 47.4 49.2 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.2 65.7 65.8 65.5 64.3 62.7 60.0 55.7 47.6 37.2 29.7 25.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 17 17 27 36 44 35 19 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):336/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 17. 7. -6. -11. -20.