* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP162012 10/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 65 61 52 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 65 61 52 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 66 64 58 49 37 22 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 40 39 37 35 35 35 33 33 28 22 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 7 5 11 29 30 24 32 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 5 9 13 4 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 260 208 296 6 21 26 27 34 45 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.1 26.0 25.8 26.6 26.7 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 136 125 123 131 130 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 6 7 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 65 62 57 51 46 40 34 32 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 23 23 24 23 25 25 20 13 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 94 70 88 88 85 62 56 28 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 81 50 38 55 57 73 62 46 41 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1026 931 805 667 519 234 154 38 12 -75 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.1 17.3 18.7 20.2 23.0 25.1 26.9 29.1 31.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.2 114.9 114.6 114.1 113.5 113.8 114.5 114.9 115.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 15 13 8 10 14 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):331/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -4. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -9. -16. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -1. -7. -18. -24. -30. -28. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -8. -30. -55. -73. -87. -91. -95.