* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 43 47 53 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 43 47 53 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 21 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1634 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -5. -12. -17. -22. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 22. 28. 34.