* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 43 55 68 77 85 91 95 97 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 33 43 55 68 77 85 91 95 97 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 16 17 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 141 160 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 75 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 42 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 193 211 207 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.8 70.8 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 23. 35. 48. 57. 65. 71. 75. 77.