* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 71 80 87 93 96 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 71 80 87 93 96 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 21 17 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 305 251 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 155 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 164 150 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 90 89 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 69 65 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 322 270 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.3 80.2 80.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 46. 55. 62. 68. 71. 72.