* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 36 40 46 54 57 55 49 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 36 40 46 54 57 55 49 46 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 41 36 33 DIS V (KT) G04R 24 22 20 16 13 22 16 18 21 20 18 19 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 12 15 16 23 29 30 48 56 60 33 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -6 -5 -3 -6 -5 -5 -5 -3 -11 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 84 116 148 171 167 152 128 117 120 126 120 61 N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 139 139 138 140 129 123 121 122 119 110 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 122 124 123 134 115 107 102 108 109 108 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -56.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 11 9 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 39 40 42 40 35 30 30 37 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 45 36 34 20 10 4 -1 -21 -11 60 N/A 200 MB DIV -37 -28 -33 -6 -19 -37 3 14 -5 -29 14 48 N/A LAND (KM) 1404 1309 1244 1274 1326 1406 1557 1733 1778 1913 2131 2131 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.7 20.1 21.6 24.3 25.9 25.9 27.0 28.2 29.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.6 53.0 53.7 53.5 53.2 52.7 52.1 51.0 50.5 49.6 46.7 41.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 2 4 4 15 10 6 3 10 18 32 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. -6. -15. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 21. 29. 32. 30. 24. 21. 21. 21.