* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 46 62 81 97 111 119 126 127 124 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 46 62 81 97 103 88 105 106 103 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 46 62 82 90 61 71 74 68 V (KT) G05R 18 22 24 24 23 25 24 32 33 42 50 56 69 SHEAR (KT) 1 9 9 9 5 2 9 21 22 27 39 44 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 2 2 3 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 308 85 102 100 59 89 50 57 30 38 32 22 13 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 20.8 28.9 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 159 159 161 161 159 83 151 141 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 152 150 151 154 158 155 147 78 140 127 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 14 14 12 13 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 74 76 77 77 77 75 73 66 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 16 19 23 27 30 36 40 44 850 MB ENV VOR 89 97 98 98 110 116 117 142 164 187 201 199 213 200 MB DIV 76 79 71 78 77 106 119 127 167 146 165 144 127 LAND (KM) 412 383 454 444 402 412 298 73 39 -22 259 490 564 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 13.8 14.0 13.7 13.3 15.1 17.1 18.6 20.4 23.1 25.3 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.7 78.6 79.0 79.5 79.2 77.8 76.8 76.6 75.7 74.5 74.5 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 4 4 7 11 11 7 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 18. 20. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 37. 56. 72. 86. 94. 101. 102. 99.