* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 57 73 85 95 100 106 110 108 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 57 73 85 94 81 87 91 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 66 72 52 56 59 56 V (KT) G10R 18 17 18 21 22 22 34 31 31 38 51 59 49 SHEAR (KT) 2 1 5 9 10 13 27 24 30 37 40 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 4 9 6 8 SHEAR DIR 282 90 140 125 103 86 51 54 41 49 33 24 16 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 9.6 9.5 28.7 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 157 160 159 160 66 64 147 137 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 146 148 145 154 145 147 65 63 135 121 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 14 14 13 14 12 13 12 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 75 74 70 64 63 55 52 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 15 20 21 23 26 32 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR 80 91 95 97 106 111 124 150 177 180 180 183 206 200 MB DIV 61 62 54 64 72 72 103 74 113 138 130 162 76 LAND (KM) 426 450 465 395 381 304 118 118 22 26 285 498 583 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.7 14.3 14.5 15.2 16.9 17.2 19.6 21.7 23.7 25.8 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.3 78.6 78.3 78.7 78.6 78.2 78.7 77.5 76.8 75.6 75.2 74.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 2 9 3 5 15 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 8. 11. 15. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 48. 60. 70. 75. 81. 85. 83.