* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 45 42 36 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 45 42 36 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 39 36 31 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 21 17 20 20 17 19 21 20 18 23 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 16 17 12 15 32 40 45 62 61 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 4 -7 -3 -6 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 140 135 111 95 123 122 125 113 120 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 127 127 125 124 124 120 114 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 115 110 109 108 105 110 108 107 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 11 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 42 38 31 28 29 35 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 18 24 15 -9 -19 -29 -21 45 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -16 -22 -1 -16 11 -24 -42 -7 51 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1508 1478 1485 1520 1534 1667 1668 1828 2125 2091 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.4 25.1 24.7 25.8 27.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.3 52.6 52.5 52.3 51.2 51.1 49.8 47.5 44.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 4 3 6 2 10 13 23 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):347/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -13. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 12. 6. 0. 0. 1. 1.