* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 61 69 84 97 103 111 112 108 100 93 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 61 69 84 92 76 84 85 81 73 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 47 53 60 66 77 81 60 62 63 59 54 47 V (KT) G06R 24 29 34 36 34 42 52 51 58 61 68 50 64 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 12 13 14 15 19 25 35 40 51 50 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 0 6 4 5 2 9 3 -1 9 SHEAR DIR 153 136 122 95 77 44 16 37 29 21 23 46 39 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 23.4 16.4 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 159 160 95 71 149 140 134 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 157 156 153 153 89 68 136 123 115 119 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 81 80 81 81 76 68 59 53 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 20 22 24 30 34 37 41 45 46 45 47 850 MB ENV VOR 121 127 120 116 123 147 170 182 195 202 226 227 208 200 MB DIV 118 108 106 122 125 165 191 168 169 168 122 37 74 LAND (KM) 387 388 383 355 266 89 91 22 299 467 527 707 801 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 13.5 14.5 15.3 17.0 19.0 21.3 23.7 25.5 26.6 27.9 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.1 77.3 77.2 77.1 76.6 76.2 76.0 75.2 75.3 74.7 73.0 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 8 10 12 12 11 8 6 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):214/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 29. 44. 57. 63. 71. 72. 68. 60. 53.