* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 65 80 94 103 110 108 105 99 94 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 65 80 86 66 81 80 76 71 65 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 57 62 73 78 56 63 61 58 52 46 V (KT) G10R 25 25 31 33 30 41 51 48 63 58 61 56 65 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 9 10 17 23 27 38 48 45 51 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 0 2 0 4 11 -7 8 -4 14 SHEAR DIR 242 220 153 116 102 60 33 33 18 24 14 31 24 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 27.8 5.2 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 160 159 160 134 64 147 140 138 130 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 154 155 154 154 126 63 134 121 121 114 109 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 13 13 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 81 80 80 78 72 61 54 50 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 19 20 26 31 36 42 44 46 48 52 850 MB ENV VOR 102 117 135 136 144 148 178 203 206 225 267 220 204 200 MB DIV 96 100 91 108 113 139 187 206 166 90 67 18 43 LAND (KM) 372 392 427 396 306 124 52 -20 273 381 464 588 753 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.6 18.8 21.1 23.9 25.1 26.2 27.8 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.5 78.1 77.8 77.7 77.3 77.0 76.7 76.2 76.2 75.5 74.2 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 8 8 10 11 14 11 5 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):214/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 20. 22. 22. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 40. 54. 63. 70. 68. 65. 59. 54.