* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 42 37 34 34 37 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 42 42 37 34 34 37 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 33 30 27 27 28 DIS V (KT) G10R 19 19 21 19 18 17 18 21 20 24 26 28 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 18 27 33 46 45 52 43 42 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -2 0 2 1 2 1 1 -3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 178 164 138 107 95 87 96 97 82 52 50 19 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.5 22.5 21.5 21.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 128 124 119 114 108 103 94 86 84 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 120 116 111 105 101 96 93 88 77 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -56.0 -55.7 -57.9 -57.5 -57.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 39 38 35 31 29 29 41 51 46 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -33 -26 -15 -11 -31 -37 -49 -10 62 81 90 N/A 200 MB DIV -30 -8 -17 -6 -10 6 27 42 52 99 70 48 N/A LAND (KM) 1521 1520 1567 1691 1795 2012 2064 1984 1932 1834 1774 1584 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 24.3 25.6 26.6 27.9 28.8 30.1 31.5 34.8 37.6 40.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.0 52.0 51.2 50.7 49.0 46.7 44.7 42.2 38.0 35.3 35.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 13 10 10 11 12 16 26 14 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):347/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -6. -13. -19. -22. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 7. 4. 4. 7. 8. 9.