* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 42 38 30 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 42 38 30 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 40 38 33 28 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 30 31 30 29 28 24 20 23 29 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 38 36 38 43 47 39 65 76 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 4 2 0 2 -8 -11 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 38 39 46 59 63 89 72 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.4 21.9 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 98 97 95 91 87 86 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 90 89 89 87 82 77 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -57.7 -58.2 -59.4 -58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 28 28 29 31 32 36 42 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -40 -42 -48 -52 -44 -45 34 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 53 57 71 51 63 16 74 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2109 2134 2189 2155 1973 1688 1521 1557 1732 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.5 30.9 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.4 33.5 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.6 39.8 38.0 36.0 34.0 30.5 28.2 28.1 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 12 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 69/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -22. -31. -36. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 28. 30. 32. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -25. -28. -30. -35. -40. -44.