* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 81 82 82 79 71 68 62 56 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 80 83 71 72 73 70 61 59 53 47 46 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 80 83 62 68 69 65 57 48 42 37 34 34 36 V (KT) G01R 45 47 49 58 65 60 62 56 48 59 61 57 64 SHEAR (KT) 19 22 24 30 37 39 56 47 53 43 21 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 0 7 7 2 -3 0 0 3 -6 2 SHEAR DIR 30 55 66 52 31 11 13 21 29 19 26 73 61 SST (C) 27.9 21.7 15.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 87 72 127 120 114 110 107 103 104 105 106 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 82 70 120 109 100 95 95 91 90 94 95 89 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 85 83 80 75 68 59 53 52 55 53 47 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 34 36 42 45 45 46 45 45 49 47 48 850 MB ENV VOR 167 194 192 184 191 212 222 220 206 229 242 250 274 200 MB DIV 166 155 167 205 192 205 89 95 63 94 97 64 64 LAND (KM) 54 33 30 253 390 392 381 531 558 526 761 1006 863 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 21.3 23.3 24.8 26.4 27.6 29.2 30.5 32.1 33.0 33.8 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 76.3 75.7 75.3 75.6 76.2 76.2 75.2 73.3 71.7 68.2 64.7 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 19 17 12 8 5 12 11 11 16 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 13/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -5. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -27. -29. -32. -33. -32. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -12. -18. -24. -25. -29. -33.