* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 88 90 89 84 75 76 69 65 64 61 55 V (KT) LAND 80 85 77 80 79 74 65 66 59 55 53 50 44 V (KT) LGE mod 80 87 87 88 86 75 62 52 44 39 36 36 35 V (KT) G02R 45 46 50 55 62 56 62 59 52 71 70 65 61 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 28 39 46 58 48 45 44 23 12 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 3 6 0 1 -7 3 -3 4 9 3 SHEAR DIR 46 61 72 52 33 16 4 10 20 10 350 6 303 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.2 23.7 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 127 125 118 114 112 111 109 109 109 98 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 124 120 108 98 96 99 97 92 96 87 65 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.2 -49.9 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 85 82 80 73 64 56 47 48 54 52 45 59 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 33 36 39 43 42 48 48 49 56 59 61 850 MB ENV VOR 201 211 210 208 197 216 243 220 214 242 279 354 416 200 MB DIV 143 149 183 221 189 144 102 109 52 73 87 66 88 LAND (KM) 54 0 86 319 420 287 271 450 381 341 530 374 59 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.9 21.8 24.0 25.7 26.9 27.8 29.8 31.8 33.6 35.0 37.9 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 76.2 75.6 75.5 76.0 77.2 77.5 76.2 74.5 72.8 70.1 70.2 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 21 20 14 6 5 14 14 8 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 13/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -30. -31. -31. -29. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 9. 11. 15. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 9. 4. -5. -4. -11. -15. -16. -19. -25.