* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 42 37 26 15 17 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 42 37 26 15 17 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 38 32 27 22 19 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 32 32 32 29 27 23 18 23 38 44 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 38 36 40 47 61 49 82 77 35 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 2 -7 1 -11 -15 -1 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 38 43 49 66 78 88 69 47 8 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.4 21.1 20.0 20.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 99 98 95 91 87 86 83 85 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 90 90 87 81 77 78 77 79 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -56.6 -57.5 -58.3 -58.8 -58.2 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 30 30 30 32 36 46 62 55 54 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 14 13 10 7 5 13 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -48 -56 -70 -70 -70 -63 55 127 214 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 69 64 71 50 82 22 98 112 29 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2123 2133 2195 2103 1917 1667 1542 1802 1934 1402 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.4 31.8 32.3 34.9 38.1 40.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.5 39.7 37.7 35.6 33.3 30.2 28.6 30.2 32.6 38.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 19 17 11 7 18 21 25 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 69/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -15. -28. -35. -34. -38. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -2. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -19. -30. -28. -24. -28. -34. -39.