* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 82 83 83 82 75 74 67 62 59 54 49 V (KT) LAND 80 83 75 75 76 74 67 67 59 54 52 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 80 76 77 70 61 53 47 41 39 39 42 V (KT) G08R 45 49 50 60 62 61 63 63 49 64 61 51 52 SHEAR (KT) 17 18 23 31 37 38 51 38 45 38 20 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 2 0 5 5 1 0 9 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 45 67 76 60 37 9 10 3 26 14 19 57 42 SST (C) 27.9 23.3 18.8 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 95 79 128 119 115 112 109 105 104 106 103 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 89 76 121 108 101 95 99 92 91 96 89 89 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -51.3 -50.3 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 6 5 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 76 67 57 50 49 55 48 44 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 34 36 41 45 46 48 45 45 47 45 43 850 MB ENV VOR 166 179 189 193 192 212 232 255 203 222 235 266 286 200 MB DIV 157 144 167 201 180 188 100 91 67 119 82 32 37 LAND (KM) 54 33 45 258 390 374 329 500 469 511 783 881 839 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 21.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 27.4 28.5 31.4 32.4 33.1 34.9 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 76.2 75.5 75.2 75.6 76.3 76.7 75.2 73.5 71.7 67.8 65.2 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 19 17 12 8 4 16 12 11 19 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 13/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -26. -27. -28. -26. -24. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. -5. -6. -13. -18. -21. -26. -31.